Thus, we expect to continue in the new year, the trends of the old unbroken. The car world is divided into two parts - strong and weak, winners and losers. The sales crisis in Western Europe, in the context of the euro debt crisis divides the industry.
Many European plants busy enough
European volume manufacturer such as Opel, Fiat and PSA have costly excess capacity should get their costs under control and make plants resistant. Thousands of jobs are lost, it is logged back on short time. After an analysis of the consulting firm PwC 15 auto plants in Europe are so weak busy that they had to be put to the test.
The bad news of the year from a German perspective was announced from the Opel plant in Bochum 2016 - whether Opel gets the curve seems questionable.
Many hopes, Opel stuck in the alliance with PSA. After several months of negotiations, the two companies also concluded just before Christmas agreements for close cooperation with the automotive development and purchasing. This will primarily control costs.
In this case, however, the Western European car market will not recover in the new year - on the contrary: The downturn is likely to go first. The Association of the Automotive Industry expects 2013 only with 11.4 million registrations in Western Europe - after an estimated 11.7 million this year. For comparison: in 2007 it was 14.8 million cars - nearly three million more. This provides for the expensive excess capacity, the German bank sees it in the EU at present at least 30 percent.
At least there's light at the end of the tunnel. During the year in 2013 could slow the downward trend, 2014 was again a new registration Plus even possible, as the analysts at Deutsche Bank expect.
Given the sales decline of repression struggle in Europe is even harder. The returns are continuing to come under pressure. Also, the discount level remains high, says auto expert Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer of the University of Duisburg-Essen. There are also rising commodity prices, such as analyst Frank Schwope of Nord / LB says.
However: a serious, worldwide industry crisis as four years ago, is not expected. "In the winter 2008/2009 we were faced with a significant downturn. Such a crash is not currently in sight, "said VDA President Matthias Wissmann.
Back then, in 2009 there was, in Detroit - where the middle of January is again the car Year ushered - depression. The economic crisis is a result of the financial turmoil had the car demand in the U.S. and Europe rushing to the basement. Nearly all car makers were affected. Not only in Germany, the state took billions in hand for short-time working and scrapping.
But today the situation is different. For the auto industry worldwide is on the rise, the sales are forecast to rise globally in 2013 - driven by the markets in the emerging economies in Asia and South America but also in the U.S..
Winners stay up, losers have to continue fighting
On the balance of power in the auto industry has, therefore, does not change much. "The winners of the 2012 and 2013 winner will be the losers, the losers," says analyst Juergen Pieper of Bankhaus Metzler. Winners are those who have a broad international presence, particularly in China and the U.S. are strong and the weak European business can absorb it.
These are in addition to the VW Group, BMW and Daimler, for German luxury cars are in demand. Even Asian manufacturers like Hyundai and Kia, the massive attack in Europe, because, well - and Toyota is making a comeback, as well as the U.S. auto giant.
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